The Six Wars to be fought by China in the coming 50 years

(This article is the English translation from an article in Wenweipo, a pro-Communist media, published on 8th July 2013, under the title of 中國未來50年裡必打的六場戰爭, which. From translator’s point of view, despite of its naivety, this article is quite a good portrait of modern Chinese Imperialism):

China is not yet a unified great power. This is a humiliation to the Chinese people, a shame to the children of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of national unification and dignity, China has to fight six wars in the coming fifty years. Some are regional wars; the others may be total wars. No matter what is the nature, each one of them is inevitable for Chinese unification.

The 1st War: Unification of Taiwan (Year 2020 to 2025)

Though we are enjoying peace on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we should not daydream a resolution of peaceful unification from Taiwan administration (no matter it is Chinese Nationalist Party or Democratic Progressive Party). Peaceful unification does not fit their interests while running for elections. Their stance is therefore to keep to status quo (which is favourable to the both parties, each of them can get more bargaining chips) For Taiwan, “independence” is just a mouth talk than a formal declaration, while “unification” is just an issue for negotiation than for real action. The current situation of Taiwan is the source of anxiety to China, since everyone can take the chance to bargain more from China.

China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020. By then, China will have to send an ultimatum to Taiwan, demanding the Taiwanese to choose the resolution of peaceful unification (the most preferred epilogue for the Chinese) or war (an option forced to be so) by 2025. For the purpose of unification, China has to make preparation three to five years earlier. So when the time comes, the Chinese government must act on either option, to give a final answer to the problem.

From the analysis of the current situation, Taiwan is expected to be defiant towards unification, so military action will be the only solution. This war of unification will be the first war under the sense of modern warfare since the establishment of the “New China”. This war will be a test to the development of the People’s Liberation Army in modern warfare. China may win this war easily, or it may turn out to be a difficult one. All depend on the level of intervention of the U.S. and Japan. If the U.S. and Japan play active roles in aiding Taiwan, or even make offensives into Chinese mainland, the war must become a difficult and prolonged total war. On the other hand, if the U.S. and Japan just watch and see, the Chinese army can easily defeat the Taiwanese. In this case, Taiwan can be under control within three months. Even if the U.S. and Japan step in in this stage, the war can be finished within six months.

The 2nd War: “Reconquest” of Spratly Islands (Year 2025 to 2030)

After unification of Taiwan, China will take a rest for two years. During the period of recovery, China will send the ultimatum to countries surrounding the Islands with the deadline of 2028. The countries having disputes on the sovereignty of Islands can negotiate with China on preserving their shares of investments in these Islands by giving up their territorial claims. If not, once China declares war on them, their investments and economic benefits will be taken over by China.

At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with Chinese military unification of Taiwan. On one hand, they will be sitting by the negotiation table, yet they are reluctant to give up their interests in the Islands. Therefore, they will be taking the wait-and-see attitude and keep delaying to make final decision. They will not decide whether to make peace or go into war until China takes any firm actions. The map below shows the situation of territorial claims over the Spratly Islands. (Map omitted)

Besides, the U.S. will not just sit and watch China “reconquesting” the Islands. In the 1st war mentioned above, the U.S. may be too late to join the war, or simply unable to stop China from reunifying Taiwan. This should be enough to teach the U.S. a lesson not to confront too openly with China. Still, the U.S. will aid those South East Asian countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, under the table. Among the countries surrounding the South China Sea, only Vietnam and the Philippines dare to challenge China’s domination. Still, they will think twice before going into war with China, unless they fail on the negotiation table, and are sure they can gain military support from the U.S.

The best option for China is to attack Vietnam, since Vietnam is the most powerful country in the region. Beating Vietnam can intimidate the rest. While the war with Vietnam goes on, other countries will not move. If Vietnam loses, others will hand their islands back to China. If the opposite, they will declare war on China.

Of course, China will beat Vietnam and take over all the islands. When Vietnam loses the war and its islands, others countries, intimidated by Chinese military power, yet still with greediness to keep their interests, will negotiate with China, returning the islands and declaring allegiance to China. So China can build the ports and place troops on these islands, extending its influence into the Pacific Ocean.

Up till now, China has made a thorough breakthrough of the First Island Chain and infiltrated the Second one, Chinese aircraft carrier can have free access into the Pacific Ocean, safeguarding its own interests.

The 3rd War: “Reconquest” of Southern Tibet (Year 2035 to 2040)

China and India share a long border, but the only sparking point of conflicts between the two countries is only the part of Southern Tibet. China has long been the imaginary enemy of India. The military objective of India is to surpass China. India aims to achieve this by self-development and importing advanced military technologies and weapons from the U.S, Russia and Europe, chasing closely to China in its economic and military development.

In India, the official and media attitude is more friendly towards the U.S, Russia and Europe, and is repellent or even hostile against China. This leads to unresolvable conflicts with China. On the other hand, India values itself highly with the aids from the U.S, Russia and Europe, thinking it can beat China in wars. This is also the reason of long lasting land disputes.

Twenty years later, although India will lag behind more compared to China in military power, yet it is still one of the few world powers. If China uses military force to conquer Southern Tibet, it has to bear some losses. In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.

Of course, such plan may fail. But China should at least try its best to incite Assam province and once conquered Sikkim to gain independence, in order to weaken the power of India. This is the best strategy.

The second best plan is to export advanced weapons to Pakistan, helping Pakistan to conquer Southern Kashmir region in 2035 and to achieve its unification. While India and Pakistan are busy fighting against each other, China should take a Blitz to conquer Southern Tibet, at the time occupied by India.

India will not be able to fight a two front war, and is deemed to lose both. China can retake Southern Tibet easily, while Pakistan can control the whole Kashmir. If this plan cannot be adopted, the worst case is direct military action to take back Southern Tibet.

After the first two wars, China has rested for around ten years, and has become a world power both in terms of military and economy. There will only be the U.S. and Europe (on the condition that it becomes a united country. If not, this will be replaced by Russia. But from my point of view, European integration is quite probable) able to cope with China in the top three list in world power.

After taking back Taiwan and Spratly Islands, China has great leap forward in its military power in army, navy, air force and space warfare. China will be on the leading role in its military power, may be only second to the U.S. Therefore, India will lose this war.


The 4th War: “Reconquest” of Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands (Year 2040 to 2045)

In the mid-21st century, China emerges as the real world power, accompanied with the decline of Japan and Russia, stagnant U.S. and India and the rise of Central Europe. That will be the best time for China to take back Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands. The map below is the contrast between ancient and recent Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands (map omitted).

Many people may know that Diaoyu Island is the land of China since the ancient times, but have no idea that the Japanese annexed Ryukyu Island (currently named as Okinawa, with U.S. military base). The society and the government of China is misled by the Japanese while they are discussing on the issues of the East China Sea, such as the “middle-line” set by the Japanese or “Okinawa issue” (Ryukyu Islands in Chinese), by coming to think that Ryukyu Islands are the ancient lands of Japan.

What a shame for such ignorance! From the historical records of Chinese, Ryukyu and other countries (including Japan), Ryukyu has long been the vassal states of China since ancient times, which means the islands are the lands of China. In this case, is the “middle line” set by Japan in the East China Sea justified? Does Japan have anything to do with the East China Sea? (Those who have no idea in these details may refer to “Ryukyu: An indispensable part of China since the ancient times” written by me)

The Japanese has robbed our wealth and resources in the East China Sea and unlawfully occupied Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands for many years, the time will come that they have to pay back. At that time, we can expect that the U.S. will be willing to intervene but has weakened; Europe will keep silent; Russia will sit and watch the fight. The war can end within half of a year with overwhelming victory of China. Japan will have no choice but to return Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands to China. East China Sea becomes the inner lake of China. Who dare to put a finger on it?

The 5th War: Unification of Outer Mongolia (Year 2045 to 2050)

Though there are advocates for reunification of Outer Mongolia at the moment, is this idea realistic? Those unrealistic guys in China are just fooling themselves and making a mistake in strategic thinking. This is just no good to the great work of unification of Outer Mongolia.

After taking Taiwan, we should base our territorial claims on the constitution and domain of the Republic of China (some people may raise a question here: why should we base our claims on the constitution and domain of the Republic of China? In such case, isn’t the People’s Republic of China being annexed by the Republic of China? This is a total bullshit. I will say: the People’s Republic of China is China; the Republic of China is China too. As a Chinese, I only believe that unification means power. The way which can protect the Chinese best from foreign aggression is the best way to the Chinese people.

We also need to know that the People’s Republic of China recognizes the independence of Outer Mongolia. Using the constitution and domain of the People’s Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia is naked aggression. We can only have legitimate cause to military action using the constitution and domain of the Republic of China. What’s more, it is the case after Taiwan being taken over by China. So isn’t it meaningless to argue which entity being unified?). China should raise the issue of unification with Outer Mongolia, and to take propaganda campaigns inside Outer Mongolia. China should also pick the groups advocating the unification, aiding them to take over key posts in their government, and to proclaim Outer Mongolia as the core interests of China upon the settlement of Southern Tibet issue by 2040.

If Outer Mongolia can return to China peacefully, it is the best result of course; but if China meets foreign intervention or resistance, China should be prepared to take military action. Taiwan model can be useful in this case: giving an ultimatum with deadline in the Year 2045. Let Outer Mongolia to consider the case for few years. If they refuse the offer, then military action takes off.

In this moment, the previous four wars have been settles. China has the political, military and diplomatic power to unify Outer Mongolia. The weakened U.S. and Russia dare not to get involved except diplomatic protests; Europe will take a vague role; while India, Africa and Central Asian countries will remain silent. China can dominate Outer Mongolia within three years’ time. After the unification, China will place heavy troops on frontier to monitor Russia. China will take ten years to build up elemental and military infrastructure to prepare for the claim of territorial loss from Russia.

The 6th War: Taking back of lands lost to Russia (Year 2055 to 2060)

The current Sino-Russian relationship seems to be a good one, which is actually a result of no better choice facing the U.S. In reality, the two countries are meticulously monitoring the each other. Russia fears the rise of China threaten its power; while China never forgets the lands lost to Russia. When the chance comes, China will take back the lands lost.

After the victories of the previous five wars by 2050, China will make territorial claims based on the domain of Qing Dynasty (similar way by making use of the domain of the Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia) and to make propaganda campaigns favoring such claims. Efforts should also be made to disintegrate Russia again.

In the days of “Old China”, Russia has occupied around one hundred and sixty million square kilometre of lands, equivalent to one-sixth of the landmass of current domain of China. Russia is therefore the bitter enemy of China. After the victories of previous five wars, it is the time to make Russians pay their price.

There must be a war with Russia. Though at that time, China has become an advanced power in navy, army, air and space forces, it is nevertheless the first war against a nuclear power. Therefore, China should be well prepared in nuclear weapons, such as the nuclear power to strike Russia from the front stage to the end. When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield. They can do nothing but to hand over their occupied lands and to pay a heavy price to their invasions in the past time.


60 thoughts on “The Six Wars to be fought by China in the coming 50 years

  1. Pingback: The Six Wars To Be Fought By China In The Next 50yrs. | Fortuna's Corner

  2. This plan would have worked in the 1800’s before the memories of German and Japanese aggression during WWII. However, those events have taught the world a lesson in tolerating violent conquest.

    This article fails to recognize that India (war 3), Pakistan (war 3), and the United States are all nuclear powers. Taiwan (war 1) and Okinawa (war 4) would both be wars against a nuclear armed United States.

    However, even if all nuclear armed militaries used them in these wars, nuclear weapons are not winning weapons. They may have psychological effects (due to mass destruction and death), but a resolute victim-opponent can win even without them. Battlefields are often too expansive for them to be a practical weapon against military targets. Their only use is against densely packed civilian populations with the hope of affecting civilian leadership. The use of nuclear weapons on a civilian population may backfire in that atrocities can further strengthen resolve to resist the offending actor.

    Ultimatums and breathing periods work both ways. If China were to decide to follow this plan, each of these countries would be on notice that they are part of a line up. This might result in rapid arming by target countries along with stronger and wider alliances.

    I take it that the ultimatums and breathing periods are in the plan to indicate periods of consolidation and preparation. But there is no guarantee that the rest of the world would allow for consolidation before pushing back, maybe even far within China’s current borders. To quote Naval Marshal Isoroku Yamamoto’s apocryphal words, “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”

    Even if all 5 wars were made into a unified Blitzkrieg with speed and surprise taking over all the disputed lands, there is no reason to discount the possibility of an overwhelming unified world response. Even if it took time to build world militaries to world war proportions, they would not sleep until China’s militancy would be completely and absolutely neutralized.

    It is unlikely that the world would stand by and watch. During the First Gulf War, the explicit reason for a unified coalition force against Saddam Hussein was preventing another Hitler style string of wars of conquest. The idea is to prevent piecemeal conquests at the first conquest or as soon as possible.

    The most likely result of this plan would be a unified world pushing back to remove Chinese forces from conquered areas and a forced regime change in Beijing to stop all notions of further conquest. China would have to have a world approved compliant leader along with a pacifist constitution and its neighbors would be armed to the teeth for a long period of time. Even Japan would be encouraged by the world to maintain much stronger defensive capacity than right now; with its own population fully convinced and supportive of that need.

    It is possible that the Allies would dismember China even further from its current size, freeing Tibet, Uiguria, and Manchuria while taking away China’s remaining blue water naval vessels, nuclear weapons, and space capacity. There might even be a demilitarized zone on mainland China adjacent to Taiwan. The plan could backfire splendidly causing great and enduring shame.

    In other words China would be weaker, smaller, and less respected as a result of such action as described here.

    • Great reply to a great article. I agree with you on the fact that the nuclear weapon is not a winning weapon in my mind it should be seen as a deterrent because of its ability to cause massive havoc in populated areas but like you said it can increase the resolve of the affected people to stand up and fight. Afterall the question now on their mind will be “what more have you got that we can’t handle?”

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  4. It’s very good that US is focusing their attention back from the Middle East to East Asia to keep these Chinese in check. By looking at how they treat Tibet, it not hard to imagine how they will treat their neighbours if they rise as a superpower.

    Truly Understanding the Chinese is the transition process from curiousity to sympathy, from sympathy to disgust and from disgust to despise.

    Chinese tourist and immigrants are like cancer, the only ways of treatment are either by Chemotherapy / Nuclear Radiation.

    – A Citizen from Former British Colony Hong Kong (we are never Chinese and we never will be)

  5. HAHA.

    Great article. Why don’t you aim for the borders of China 5000 years ago! Why do you arbitrarily chose your territorial claims based on a mix between the Qing Empire’s borders (Qing were not Chinese btw!!) and ROC’s borders (most of which were inherited from the Qing).

    I love territorial nationalists…

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  7. Hey all, I am an Indian film director and I am doing a film whose subject is unlimited humour….I need a Japanese kind of face for a Japani character in the film….Since I am unable to find anyone suitable for that role, can someone give me the contact details of the author of this article? Assuming that the writer is a Chinese and not Japanese, it will not make much of a difference to Indian public and outside world since both Japanese and Chinese look more or less the same to Indians and outside world….I don’t think I will get any actor more suitable for the character than the author of this article….

    • For your information, the guy who wrote this article left his/her name as “LI, Qiuyue” (李秋悅).
      Unfortunately, I am still unable to find any photos of this guy. Hope this info is useful to
      you, Rahul.

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  12. I think this is just a propaganda. China will not embark on all these wars, at least not some of them. The cost(human. financial and structural) will be too much for them to handle and i am sure they would have thought of that way before. In short the possible of these wars are very minute

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  16. If it was written by anybody else, I would have thought of a joke, a very stupid and disgusting joke.
    But since it is talking about china, I am afraid this bunch of idiots are really taking in consideration this plan.
    I wish nothing but the worst to whoever tries to achieve these goals.
    china, a cancer for peace and humanity

    • you got it right mate … when they facing much stronger side those assholes playing victim role and telling how horrible unhumanly they’re but when they slaughtering weaker ones calling it glory chinese “unification” or shit and saying all those weaker ” uneducated ” barbar nations knee under glory chinese culture etc bullshit like that… and i’m fearing not only those six nations and lands are eye on chinese but all africa , south east asia , central asia , maybe south american nations faced their unlimited greed stupidness …

      • I would say the loss of Hong Kong to China was a strategic catastrophe to the United Kingdom, and even the Western civilized world or the world order which the US or UK may not notice. Most countries at the time of 1997 underestimated the ambitions of the Chinese. Hong Kong could have been a beachhead against Chinese aggression. Losing it not only meant a loss of a dot on the map, but a financial centre for which Chinese could undergo capitalization process under the disguise of modernized legal and economic infrastructure. The surrender of Hong Kong from the UK to China was like opening Pandora’s box, it’s like blood transfusion to a zombie. The world will have to pay a price for it.

  17. Who is China? it is the group of people begging for food and work from Western countries. If the rest of the Western countries like US and Euro don’t transfer technoligies to China, it’s still a dirt bag noodle as everyone always see around the globe. Now they have a little money in the bank then start instigate the peaceful world.
    The rest of the world do not need to talk but take action against this bully country.
    Furthermore, China is totally wrong , let learn from the British and European countries,. They united their people become a strongest group in the human races starting 17 century. China is so blind to recognize this theory of human race.
    Look at them, they help their own races and look at you, you try to separate each contries and destroy the bonding among asia . China, you are so stupid

  18. This might happen. We should be afraid if by way of machination, China merges its power with Russia for world domination. The end is near by then.

  19. China will succumb to the plague of Avian flu, and millions of them will die to infections, this might upset this aggression they plan

  20. China was once a great civilization. They made so many contributions to the advancement of our world culture. I don’t think they will attain that level of developement again until their leadership can understand and imbrace the concepts of justice, rule of law, compassion and wisdom. To China’s leaders the lives of the citizens of China somehow are less valuable than their own or that of their privileged children. I have learned about the pollution, corruption, greed and aggression taking place in their country. So much potential, but they lack a clear vision. I wonder, what would Confucius or Buddha think?

  21. The Chinese are too stupid to even know how to cross the street without causing ten accidents. How are they going to manage to fight people who haven’t had their brain cells damaged by years of Mao brainwashing? That and the fact the whole population of their cities will have lung cancer from the shit they breath in everyday.
    Yeah scary China.

  22. Since this naive plan was revealed, only one option remains for China. Give up the illssion of conquering because war caused by greed and violence is completely unacceptable in this present generation. Either join the world unification for progress while respecting democracy, or be crushed by the united nations. The author of this article totally forgotten the role of United Nations which is still in its infancy stage of acquiring power. Sooner or later, UN will stand strongly with force and legal jurisdiction over matters of conquest and there is no choice for China to embrace change and give up the idea of communism.

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  24. there’s no harm in dreaming. go on, continue to dream. china and the chinese has never been good at anything.
    well sorry, they’re good at copying. thats why they’re now the second biggest economy. if we don’t buy from them, let’s see if they’d be even the 5th biggest economy.
    keep on dreaming china.

  25. The article is too simplistic to even be bothered .Why ? Does the author of this essay expect the rest of the world stand dazed with their arms folded doing nothing til they are defeated and become an occupied territories of GREAT MOTHERLAND ??????????????????????
    The writer might as well have titled this essay : ” CHINA DAY-DREAMING SUPERPOWER “.

  26. Sad old paradigms. Tragic thinking, by entrenched leaders who have removed their money and kids from an insane nation with 30 million extra young men they consider ‘disposable’?

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  29. Keep on dreaming, chinaman. How many times did you lose in your trials of conquering Vietnam???? No wonder with the most population on earth,and the longest history , chinaman is still behind the world nowadays. Wahahahhahaa!

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  32. Mongolia is one of the oldest free republics of asia as a whole. Every Mongol person has mindset of freedom inprinted in thier DNA since the advent of advanced nomadic culture.
    Mongols sessided from Manchu League and declared independence from china in 1911 (even earlier than Russian revolution) we fought war with Republic of China on number of cases and were very successful tough russians stopped military supply like guns and ammo and that was 1911…
    we again fought with ROC and Japanese aggressors even before Hitler attacked Polland. We also fought and liberated northern china and made friendly relationship with PRC which we value even today.
    Modern Mongol history is less studied but no less impressive than any world events. Against all the possible odds. Mongol people are living in 19th largest country in the world neighbouring 2 of the top world superpowers and yet prospering.
    So let me tell you one thing. Be friends with us or choose the way of death.

  33. I think the first three depicted wars are probable scnenarios and fourth is possible but in much longer time than the writer suggested, it is unlikely that China will give upTaiwan, South China sea, Sankaku island, and possibly Mongolia, all these supposed four wars are militarily winnable by China and they do not directly involve nuclear powers as somebody suggested in the comments. but war with India and Russia (if they only stay their current level of power let alone to grow) is suckers strategy. Yes China can use current US strategy of destablizing and copy cut it on India and Russia internally

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