(Note: An amusing article dated 30th October 2013 from Globaltimes, another mouthpiece of Chinese Communists. Chinese never learn to be prudent in their territorial ambitions, and refrain from exaggerations. This time the article again concerns the Japanese, the deadly foe to those Chinese brainwashed with patriotism.)
Link of original text in Chinese: http://mil.huanqiu.com/paper/2013-10/4506832.html
Commentaries: Japan has few cards to play against China even cuddling the U.S.
Itsunori Onodera, the Japanese Minister of Defence, spoke in the press conference in the morning of 29th October that the recent “invasions” of the Chinese in the territorial waters near Diaoyu Islands/Senkaku Islands, have stepped into the grey zone between peaceful period and the state of emergency. Such statement reignited the tension on Sino-Japanese relations.
There is nothing more to talk between China and Japan. Only mutual attacks and warnings remain. Both sides are firm on their grounds and no one is willing to concede. Each side is cautious to test the bottom line of the other on one hand, and get prepared for military conflicts on the other.
The U.S. casts a great shadow on Sino-Japanese relations. It is quite probable the provocations from Japanese are connived by the Americans, yet the Japanese has no idea what kind of assistance they can get in case military conflicts break out. Although it is quite apparent that the U.S. and Japan are on the same side, the U.S. never gives up its role as a mediator to balance the power of the two sides. If China and Japan engage in military conflicts, it will be a hard decision for the U.S. to decide what kind of intervention to take.
As long as the U.S. refrains from supporting Japan to go to war with China publicly, we can ignore the attitude of the U.S. by concentrating on contending Japanese provocations. Though Japan is arrogant in its words, the lacking of confidence is quite apparent. If it is not the case, Japanese officials don’t need to show their determination publicly by repeating their words, and to request the U.S. to clarify its role in every possible occasion.
China has been refusing to meet Japanese senior officials. China only reiterates its position through the spokesmen of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence, casting a great contrast with the actions of the Japanese, with its Prime Minister and the heads of ministries requesting dialogues with China. China has already got an upper hand against Japan psychologically. Japan can do no more but to play rascal tricks to get attention from China.
Japanese plot to nationalize Senkaku Islands was a total failure. The current Japanese “effective control” on the Islands was undermined by China. Japan showed its weakness in front of Chinese determined counterattacks. Japan is taking steps to reaffirm its bottom lines against further actions from China to safeguard its sovereignty in the Islands.
As it is not a realistic objective for China to retake the Islands now, the new order may be possibly formed by the two sides under current tensions.
The threats from Japan to shoot down unmanned aerial vehicles and the hostile comments from Japanese officials are tricks on the bargaining table. Though Japan seems to insist on the line-to-take in denying any territorial conflicts ever exist over the Islands, it can do nothing but to keep an open eye to Chinese official vessels cruising the territorial waters around the Islands routinely and the Chinese vessels entering 12 knots of territorial waters.
China and Japan are in the contest of determination. The result of such standoff affects the Sino-Japanese relations in foreseeable future.
China should not only maximize its current advantage in the dispute over the Islands, but should teach Japan a lesson through this event: provoking China will not bring any good to Japan. Even Japan is allied to the U.S., it still has no advantage in the dispute.
Prolonged confrontation between the two makes them strategic enemies. But China and American will not. China and the U.S. have many common interests and opportunities globally. Japan is the pawn of the U.S., not the vice versa.
As long as the situation on the Islands is off from the expectations of China, and that the Japanese insist on visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, China should keep on putting pressure on Japan. However, China doesn’t need to put the same pressure on itself by setting an unrealistic objective. China should put pressure on Japan, but not itself.
Let the Japanese senior officials to repeat their offensive empty statements. China just needs to keep its pressure on Japan being stable, consistent and sustainable, showing the power and dignity of a rising world power. China should at the same time show to be strategic self-restraint and rational, this can at last perish the determination of Japan.